electionsmcp › races › Arizona State Senate District 15
Arizona State Senate District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State Senate District 15 →
Current officeholder
Jake Hoffman Republican
2024 result
Republican R+31.9
2024 votes cast
137,497
Office
State Senate
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Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State Senate District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State Senate District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open Arizona State Senate District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State Senate District 15?
Jake Hoffman (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State Senate District 15?
R+31.9 — 43,769 Democratic, 87,580 Republican, of 137,497 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.